The question is : Do they consider victory Russia withdrawing and keeping hold of the Donbas region ?
Considering Putin said from the very beginning that he never wanted to occupy Ukraine and just wanted to “liberate” and “protect” the two regions in the Donbas that he claims are pro Russia that’s kinda a victory for him not Ukraine?
Unless they are going to claim “we still have Nazis and Guns so you lose “ because he claimed to demilitarise and de nazify.
I think Zelensky stated there would be no territorial concessions to Russia.
IMHO Russia is doing all this to gain a strangle hold over over the Black Sea
Ukraine will have to pay tribute with every tonne of grain and gallon of sunflower oil
Putin is playing us with his extreme ideological rhetoric
The south is secure
Have you see footage of Mariupol?
That’s a reasonable thing to think, for sure.
I have not looked since yesterday my time.
Mariupol , if not rubblised, is uninhabitable
The northern offensive was a smoke screen, I’m tellin’ ya!
The initial plan supposedly, was to decapitate the Zelensky government…it didn’t work.
Putin is making lemons out of lemonade. The loss of men and material has been huge…
Not a very good plan, IMO, if you are correct.
The russians are still positioning themselves to take Kiev. Once they secure the south…
They are being a bit smarter, now, apparently.
Perhaps
Or perhaps we are playing checkers and Putin is playing chess
Don’t get me wrong, I’m no Putin apologist, but he is a lot smarter and a lot more ruthless than us soft westerners
Sometimes I think there is a potato between your ears.
Putin is cunning that’s for sure. However, he is still human and does seem to have shit the bed in many ways here.
My uninformed opinion tends toward him overplaying his hand.
When Biden spoke to Putin prior to the entering Ukraine he said to the disappointment of the Ukrainians that that it might be more of an incursion than a full invasion following the call.
US intelligence was on the money when they were shouting that Putin was definitely going into Ukraine when many others including Ukraine was saying that he was not .
So you have to feel that maybe Putin was clear with Biden from the off.
The only place I have seen talk of decapitation and puppet government was in the media and a handful of unreliable politicians .
In fairness I believed this was what was going to happen too at the beginning as it’s kinda how these things tend to go but in hindsight why would he try that ? Ukraine recently booted out a pro Russian leader and replaced him and it simply is not possible for them to occupy Ukraine .
If Putin does withdraw and maybe hold some dodgy referendums in those Donbas regions to legitimise his occupation of them after battering the rest of Ukraine then maybe that wasn’t the agenda but it’s going to be hard for anyone to argue that he hasn’t done exactly what he said he would do .
Just took allot longer because he overestimated his support in Ukraine , underestimated the amount of assistance from the west , underestimated the resilience of the Ukrainians and his army was dogshit .
Putin will also tax Ukrainian potatoes
The Ukrane army is basically gi joe at this point.
Putin has stated that he wants a regime change in Ukraine and the initial stages of the invasion were pretty much a blitzkrieg set to topple the Capitol and from there Putin can do what he wants. Obviously this stalled and the invasion turned into sieges and occupation.
However, he has been somewhat vague in his actual mission in Ukraine. ‘Special Military Operation’ is meaningless and he’s probably used this term to play fast and loose with the shifting stages of the invasion. It’s a double-edged sword as he can claim that pretty much anything that happens is intentional this smoothing over fuck ups, the downside is that there is not a clear overall mission for his command to follow and that’s looking more evident as the war progresses.
At this rate, he might make do with the Donbas region but it would be a bitter ‘victory’ for him. This was never about the Donbas, they were used as a reason to prop up his excuses to invade (something Russia relies on in all ex-soviet countries) and are not worth the price of showcasing how shit the Russian military actually is.
Unfortunately , because he and his spokespeople lie most of the time, what Putin says publicly means nothing, or may not, it’s impossible to tell and equally likely to be either
Eastern Ukraine is a buffer zone between him and NATO. As is Northern Georgia and Belarus
Fun fact, the name Ukraine derives from a word for March
It will also allow deniability for Russian activities on NATO’s borders
A land bridge to Crimea , and potentially the whole Ukraine coast is a good outcome for Russia, and puts them in an excellent position for further conquest in 10 years time
I agree, it’s why I mentioned that he has been somewhat vague about his mission.
[quote]Eastern Ukraine is a buffer zone between him and NATO. As is Northern Georgia and Belarus
Fun fact, the name Ukraine derives from a word for March
It will also allow deniability for Russian activities on NATO’s borders
A land bridge to Crimea , and potentially the whole Ukraine coast is a good outcome for Russia, and puts them in an excellent position for further conquest in 10 years time[/quote]
If it was about Donbas he would have annexed it much like the Crimea and not started the disastrous northern assault and the sieges of cities. Agitating pro-Russian locals in order to fuck about is old hat for Russian foreign policy and the Donbas is no different. They’re another type of useful idiot to the Kremlin.
I don’t think it was all about Donbas et al , the eastern marches are necessary to achieve the overall objective
As to annexation, they are effectively annexed below a thin veneer of independence and democracy
But what leads you to believe the northern offensive is/was a disaster?
What overall objective? Putin still hasn’t given a clear statement about his mission. Do you mean your idea about the land bridge? I don’t disagree, it’s feasible but it’s clearly not the objective.
The northern AO has been a shit-show, the loss of materiel and men has been staggering taken into account what the Russian forces have gained (and lost), I’m honestly surprised if you think it’s going well or if you still believe it’s some sort lf ruse. It clearly isn’t.
I would like to know how western analysts are calculating Russian casualties
I would also note Russia is not denying the casualty figures, which leads me to believe that Putin wants the west to belive Russia has taken heavy losses. This does not mean casualties are not high, but given Putin’s general perfidy, make me suspicious