BKR
October 26, 2021, 8:32pm
1
You think your intuition and “gut” are good enough to combat Bullshido?
Well, “think” again. These common paradoxes get all of us a lot.
Conditional probabilities are a bitch, but you gotta learn sometime…
Much of our thinking is flawed because it is based on faulty intuition, says Professor Leighton Vaughan Williams. But by using the framework and tools of probability and statistics, he explains how we can overcome this to provide solutions to many...
Est. reading time: 4 minutes
https://www.cebm.ox.ac.uk/news/views/the-prosecutors-fallacy
https://www.significancemagazine.com/science/660-bayes-theorem-and-covid-19-testing
2 Likes
I’ve got a good feeling about this Prima Posta
"For example, when digging up potatoes, why does the fork go through the very large one? "
OK
You’ve piqued my interest
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IMO the “Bad Luck” narrative has survival value insofar as if one believes there is a negative outcome due to ephemeral forces, one is more likely to take precautions to mitigate that negative outcome
Bayes is good at getting things right most of the time, if you have trained an accurate model, and the population doesn’t change. About 4/5.
The 1/5 get fucked in the ass, heuristically speaking.
BKR
October 27, 2021, 2:10pm
6
It’s not how right you are, it’s how wrong, is what I like to say.
1 Like
BKR
October 27, 2021, 2:12pm
7
Yeah, I can understand that. When you are dodging Sabertooth Cats and Dire Wolves, you don’t have a lot of time to worry about paradoxes.
I suspect the default is how our brains are wired at one level.
I like to think of this in terms of the OG Monty Hall problem (before they changed it up because people figured out how to game it). From one perspective, you still have a 1/3 chance, but from another perspective you have a 1/2 chance. See also the birthday paradox.
So in the “next bus” scenario, I would assume the last bus just left, and will feel lucky when it arrives earlier than expected
Hope is the enemy of happiness
BKR
October 27, 2021, 4:19pm
11
Worst case scenario, right.
There is always a Cave Bear in the cave!
I don’t think I have ever heard that phrase. Where does it come from?
I’d look it up myself but I’m in the middle of a couple of big projects right now.
Project Power Falcon is getting it’s wings…