Faulty Intuition, Probability and Statistics, and Common Estimation Errors With a Side of Bayes Theorem

You think your intuition and “gut” are good enough to combat Bullshido?

Well, “think” again. These common paradoxes get all of us a lot.

Conditional probabilities are a bitch, but you gotta learn sometime…




I’ve got a good feeling about this Prima Posta

"For example, when digging up potatoes, why does the fork go through the very large one? "


You’ve piqued my interest


IMO the “Bad Luck” narrative has survival value insofar as if one believes there is a negative outcome due to ephemeral forces, one is more likely to take precautions to mitigate that negative outcome

Bayes is good at getting things right most of the time, if you have trained an accurate model, and the population doesn’t change. About 4/5.

The 1/5 get fucked in the ass, heuristically speaking.

It’s not how right you are, it’s how wrong, is what I like to say.

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Yeah, I can understand that. When you are dodging Sabertooth Cats and Dire Wolves, you don’t have a lot of time to worry about paradoxes.

I suspect the default is how our brains are wired at one level.

I like to think of this in terms of the OG Monty Hall problem (before they changed it up because people figured out how to game it). From one perspective, you still have a 1/3 chance, but from another perspective you have a 1/2 chance. See also the birthday paradox.

Very cool, another one!

Maths are hard, LOL.

So in the “next bus” scenario, I would assume the last bus just left, and will feel lucky when it arrives earlier than expected

Hope is the enemy of happiness

Worst case scenario, right.

There is always a Cave Bear in the cave!

12 chrs

I don’t think I have ever heard that phrase. Where does it come from?

I’d look it up myself but I’m in the middle of a couple of big projects right now.

Project Power Falcon is getting it’s wings…

Some TED talk